System Dynamics and Complexity

                I truly have enjoyed the learning material and assignments over the past two modules, as they have touched on System Dynamics, Systems Thinking, and the nature of complexity within every system (even those which are seemingly simple). Additionally, I am keenly interested in the doctrines of Engineering Control Theory and the teachings of System Engineering pioneers such as Jay Wright Forrester and Karl Popper. It seems like such a dichotomy to me, that these men lived in periods where technology was still largely un-developed. Yet, it seems they possessed an uncanny (call it brilliance) ability to quantify key assertations and core foundations for understanding System Complexity, which are more relevant today than ever before. Much like Sterman pointed out, I am of the firm belief that Human Beings represent the most dynamic/complex systems (at least that we know of) on earth. As such, we are highly resilient, adaptable, and prone to broad, highly varied behavioral/functional states. This in large part, is due to a critical dependence on initial conditions, coupled with a complex sensitivity to our environment (the world around us) (Sterman, 2002). As Popper pointed out, a major aspect of the Human Machine Interface (HMI) lies within Human Cognitive Induction, and the ability to formulate validities or universal truths based on iterations of mental modeling. Through experience, we as humans formulate hypothesis/assumptions regarding our world (top-level SoS) and the sub-sets of systems within it, which we interface with (Popper, 2002). As a Systems Test Engineer, I often deal with the testing of complex Systems, leveraging equally complex control systems, and I am directly impacted by consequences related to System Dynamics and Chaotic Behavior. For example, a ubiquitous joke among Software Test Engineers is that on many days, they ask, “Why is it not working?” and on a few days they ask, “Why is it working?”  With this in mind, I pulled three major take-aways from Sterman, Popper, and Forrester’s teachings on Systems Thinking:

1.       Sampling size is Paramount. Not just in statistics, but with regards to cognitive mental modeling. The more iterations of an experience someone can model through cognitive visualization/analysis, the greater the fidelity of their mental models. THIS is the key to accurate induction. Reliability increases through expansion of the iterative modeling process (Popper, 2002).

2.       There is always context in Systems Thinking; the idea that no one situation is the same as the next. This is often exhibited in Human Behavior, where individuals will address once problem with the same solution they used for a previous, differing problem (Popper, 2002).

3.       With regards to Systems Thinking and understanding complexity in Dynamic Systems: The central idea behind Systems Thinking is to eliminate Uncertainty, Ambiguity, and Chaos through the development (and constant refining) of accurate models of System and Human behavior, over as many iterations and situations (perspectives) as possible. Simply put, increasing experience provides a greater level of understanding (Sterman, 2002).

In retrospect, I have been impacted on a profound level by the understanding attained from my analysis of Engineering Control Theory and System Dynamics. It truly is empowering to develop a greater respect for (in my case) and understanding of the critical importance statistical modeling and mathematics plays in the science of my work/home life. I am eager to see where the next bend in my learning path will lead. It is also worth noting, the The Logic of Scientific Discovery by Karl Popper transcends both time and language translation, to provide sound, dynamic principles for addressing Dynamical System Context. It is a fascinating read. Furthermore, Sterman’s real-world examples of Policy Resistance in dynamic systems are astounding and poignant.

"There is nothing more necessary to the man of science than its history, and the logic of discovery...: the way error is detected, the use of hypothesis, of imagination, the mode of testing (Popper, 2002)."

-Lord Acton

 

Popper, K. (2002). The logic of scientific discovery (2nd ed.). Routledge.

Sterman, J. D. (2002). System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World (ESD-WP-2003-01.13). MIT/Engineering Systems Division. https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/102741/esd-wp-2003-01.13.pdf?sequence=1